#USDCAD @ 1.37550 US dollar reverses sharply across the board, DXY turns negative. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
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- US dollar reverses sharply across the board, DXY turns negative.
- US CPI comes in above expectations, triggering volatility.
- USD/CAD sharp reversal, if sustainable, could suggest a top.
The pair currently trades last at 1.37550.
The previous day high was 1.3831 while the previous day low was 1.376. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.3804, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.3787, expected to provide resistance.
The USD/CAD jumped dramatically after US CPI data and then pulled back even with more drama, falling almost 250 pips from the peak. The pair hit the highest level in two years near 1.4000 and as of writing, it is hovering around 1.3750.
The US September Consumer Price Index came in above expectations and triggered a decline in Wall Street, in Treasuries and a rally of the US dollar. All those moves have been reversed. The Dow Jones is up by 1.73% or 505 points, after a 900-point reversal.
The outcome of the US CPI warrants another 75 basis points rate hike from the Fed at the November meeting. Some analysts could even mention the odds of an even larger hike, but it seems unlikely. The news is that inflation is not pulling back in the US.
The reversal of the US dollar across the board could point to an interim top. In the case of USD/CAD, the move takes place after approaching the psychological 1.40 zone. If the pair manages to rise back above 1.3850 a test of 1.40 would be back on the cards.
On Friday, during the Asian session Chinese CPI data is due. Later, is the turn of US September Retail Sales and Canadian Manufacturing Sales.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
USDCAD currently trading at 1.3794 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.3816 and is trading with a change of -0.16 % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 1.3794 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | -0.0022 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | -0.1600 |
| 3 | Today daily open | 1.3816 |
The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 1.3593, 50 SMA 1.3233, 100 SMA @ 1.3046 and 200 SMA @ 1.287.
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 1.3593 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 1.3233 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 1.3046 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 1.2870 |
The previous day high was 1.3831 while the previous day low was 1.376. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.3804, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.3787, expected to provide resistance.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 1.3773, 1.3731, 1.3703
- Pivot resistance is noted at 1.3844, 1.3873, 1.3915
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 1.3831 |
| Previous Daily Low | 1.3760 |
| Previous Weekly High | 1.3827 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 1.3503 |
| Previous Monthly High | 1.3838 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 1.2954 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 1.3804 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 1.3787 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 1.3773 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 1.3731 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 1.3703 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 1.3844 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 1.3873 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 1.3915 |
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