#USDINR @ 82.3060 has sensed fresh demand at around 82.00 amid soaring bets for a 75 bps rate hike by the Fed. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/INR has sensed fresh demand at around 82.00 amid soaring bets for a 75 bps rate hike by the Fed.
• The Indian retail inflation could accelerate to a five-month of 7.30%.
• The US economy could face a recession situation in the coming six to nine months.

The pair currently trades last at 82.3060.

The previous day high was 82.778 while the previous day low was 82.096. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 82.3566, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 82.5175, expected to provide resistance.

The USD/INR pair has advanced to near 82.30 after picking bids from around 82.00. The asset has firmed up as chances for a 75 basis point (bps) rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have advanced dramatically. As per CME FedWatch tool, the chances of a fourth consecutive 75 bps rate hike announcement stand at 82.8%.

Soaring bets for the continuation of the current pace of policy tightening by the Fed have fired the US dollar index (DXY). The DXY has refreshed its two-week high at 113.60. Also, the market mood is getting more depressed on declining global growth projections.

Going forward, India’s retail inflation data will remain in focus. Reuters poll on India’s inflation cited that the price pressures will accelerate to a five-month high of 7.30%. It seems that the projections are well above the tolerance of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The Indian inflation data will be followed by US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is due on Thursday.

As per the estimates, the headline US inflation will decline to 8.1% from the prior release of 8.3%. While the core CPI that excludes oil and food prices in scrutiny is expected to improve to 6.5% vs. the former figure of 6.3%. The deviation in the inflation duo holds weak gasoline prices responsible.

On Tuesday, Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, warned that the US economy could slip into recession in the coming six to nine months. He further added that the Eurozone is already in recession and it may put the mighty US into recession too. He has cited soaring inflation and interest rates, and the war situation are responsible for the recession situation ahead, as reported by NewsBytes.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut India’s economic growth forecast to 6.8% in 2022. The impact of the recession in Europe and break growth in the US economy will display its multiplier effects.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDINR currently trading at 82.2836 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 82.2789 and is trading with a change of 0.01 % .

The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 81.1481, 50 SMA 80.237, 100 SMA @ 79.4606 and 200 SMA @ 77.627.

The previous day high was 82.778 while the previous day low was 82.096. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 82.3566, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 82.5175, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 81.9906, 81.7023, 81.3086
• Pivot resistance is noted at 82.6726, 83.0663, 83.3546

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