#NZDJPY @ 84.2620 fades bounce off six-week low after mixed NZ data., @nehcap view: Further weakness expected (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• NZD/JPY fades bounce off six-week low after mixed NZ data.
• New Zealand’s Q3 Westpac Consumer Survey improved, trade deficit widened in August.
• Clear break of 100-DMA, weekly resistance line direct sellers towards four-month-old support.
• BOJ is likely to buck the trend of hawkish central bank announcements.

The pair currently trades last at 84.2620.

The previous day high was 85.47 while the previous day low was 84.54. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 84.89, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 85.11, expected to provide resistance.

NZD/JPY retreats to 84.40 after a slew of New Zealand data failed to impress the pair buyers during Thursday’s Asian session. In doing so, the cross-currency pair defends the previous day’s downside break of the 100-DMA while also respecting the one-week-old descending resistance line.

New Zealand’s trade deficit widened to $12.28B during August versus $11.97B prior. Further details suggest that the Imports grew to $7.93B from $7.76B previous readings while the Exports dropped to $5.48B compared to $6.35B previous announcements. Earlier in the day, the nation’s Westpac Consumer Survey data for the third quarter (Q3) probed the NZD/USD bears while matching 87.6 forecasts versus 78.7 prior. “Consumer confidence in New Zealand improved in the third quarter but the mood in the country remains grim,” said Reuters following the data release.

On the other hand, the majority of the global central banks have been hawkish in lifting their benchmark rates so far but the Bank of Japan (BOJ) isn’t expected to do so, which in turn keeps the room for a surprise favor and weigh on the prices.

Also read: BOJ Preview: One day, it will surprise us all, but not today

Given the bearish MACD signals and the downbeat RSI (14), not oversold, joining the aforementioned catalysts, the NZD/JPY is on the way to testing an upward sloping support line from May, close to 83.85 by the press time.

Following that, the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of May-September advances, respectively near 83.65 and 82.60, could lure the pair bears.

Meanwhile, recovery moves will need to cross the 100-DMA and the immediate resistance line, around 84.55 and 84.65 in that order, to convince NZD/JPY buyers.

In a case where the quote remains firmer past 84.65, a run-up towards June’s peak surrounding 86.80 can’t be ruled out.

Trend: Further weakness expected

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

NZDJPY currently trading at 84.37 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 84.74 and is trading with a change of -0.44% % .

The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 85.79, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 85.26 , below its 100 Daily moving average @ 84.55 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 82.33

The previous day high was 85.47 while the previous day low was 84.54. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 84.89, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 85.11, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 84.36, 83.98, 83.43
• Pivot resistance is noted at 85.3, 85.85, 86.23

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