Fed: Officials’ median view of policy rate at end-2023 rises to 4.6% from 3.8%
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The US Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections, the so-called dot plot, revealed on Wednesday that officials’ median view of the Fed’s policy rate at the end of 2023 stands at 4.6%, compared to 3.8% in June’s dot plot.
“Fed officials’ median view of fed funds rate at end-2022 4.4% vs 3.4% in June projection.”
“Fed officials’ median view of fed funds rate at end-2024 3.9% (prev 3.4%).”
“Fed officials’ median view of fed funds rate at end-2025 2.9%.”
“Fed officials’ median view of fed funds rate in longer run 2.5% (prev 2.5%).”
“Ffed officials see year-end US jobless rate at 3.8% in 2022 (prev 3.7%); 4.4% in 2023 (prev 3.9%); 4.4% in 2024 (prev 4.1%); 4.3% in 2025; long-run at 4.0% (prev 4.0%).”
“Fed officials see PCE inflation at 5.4% in 2022 (prev 5.2%); 2.8% in 2023 (prev 2.6%); 2.3% in 2024 (prev 2.2%); 2.0% in 2025; long-run at 2.0% (prev 2.0%).”
“Fed officials see GDP growth at 0.2% in 2022 (prev 1.7%); 1.2% in 2023 (prev 1.7%); 1.7% in 2024 (prev 1.9%); 1.8% in 2025; long-run at 1.8% (prev 1.8%).”
“One Fed official sees US GDP contracting in 2023.”
“Summary of economic projections implies at least one more 75-basis-point rate hike in 2022, no rate cuts until 2024.”
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