WTI pulls back from the weekly top, takes offers to refresh intraday low. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• WTI pulls back from the weekly top, takes offers to refresh intraday low.
• IEA forecast, softer US dollar and EU’s energy plan favored oil buyers previously.
• Anxiety ahead of US Retail Sales, hawkish Fed bets challenge commodity buyers.

The pair currently trades last at 88.4.

The previous day high was 89.65 while the previous day low was 85.77. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 88.17, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 87.25, expected to provide support.

WTI crude oil prices return to the bear’s radar, after refreshing the weekly top the previous day, amid the sluggish Asian session on Thursday. That said, the black gold declines to $88.32 while refreshing the intraday low.

The energy benchmark’s latest weakness could be linked to the market’s inaction, as well as the downbeat inventory data from the official source, namely the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). That said, the EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change rose to 2.442M for the week ended on September 09, versus 0.8333M market forecasts and 8.844M previous readings.

While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 3,670 whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields remain directionless near 3.416%.

US President Joe Biden’s rejection of US fears and China’s stimulus are some of the key developments that should have favored the risk appetite. However, the Sino-American tussles and the energy crisis in Europe seemed to have challenged the optimism. It’s worth noting that the looming labor strike in the US appears an extra burden on the risk appetite.

It’s worth noting that the news suggesting hardships for the US oil supplies in the Northeast, due to labor problems, should also challenge the oil prices. ” Some trains carrying fuel components to the U.S. Northeast have been halted in preparation for a possible railroad shutdown in the coming days, two sources familiar with the situation said on Wednesday,” stated Reuters.

“Global oil demand growth will rebound strongly next year as China eases COVID lockdowns, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday, adding that an economic slowdown will pause growth only briefly at the end of this year,” reported Reuters. The news seemed to have recalled the oil buyers initially. On the same line could be the European Union’s (EU) energy plan that teases Russia to increase hardships for the blocs to gain gas/oil supplies. the European Commission announced on Wednesday that it proposed a voluntary target for European Union countries to cut overall monthly electricity use by 10% compared to the same period in recent years, as reported by Reuters. “EU proposes windfall levy to claw back surplus profits from fossil fuel companies,” the news also mentioned.

Moving on, headlines surrounding the EU energy crisis and the US Retail Sales, expected to remain unchanged at 0.0% on MoM, could entertain the oil traders.

WTI crude oil prices remain sidelined between the 21-DMA and a one-week-old support line, respectively near $89.10 and $87.15. Given the bearish RSI divergence on the daily chart, crude oil prices are likely to decline further.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

XTIUSD currently trading at 88.4 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 88.54 and is trading with a change of -0.16% % .

The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 89.18, 50 SMA 92.08, 100 SMA @ 100.81 and 200 SMA @ 96.03.

The previous day high was 89.65 while the previous day low was 85.77. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 88.17, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 87.25, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 86.33, 84.11, 82.45
• Pivot resistance is noted at 90.21, 91.87, 94.09

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