The Japanese Yen attracts some buyers amid geopolitical risks and intervention fears.

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• The Japanese Yen attracts some buyers amid geopolitical risks and intervention fears.
• Fading hopes for an imminent shift in the BoJ’s policy stance might cap further gains.
• The Fed’s higher-for-longer narrative underpins the USD and lends support to USD/JPY.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) ticks higher against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Friday and for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak to over a one-week low touched the previous day. The recent verbal intervention by Japanese authorities and persistent geopolitical tensions turn out to be key factors lending some support to the safe-haven JPY. That said, any meaningful appreciating move still seems elusive in the wake of bets for a delay in the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) plans to end its ultra-loose policies, bolstered by data showing that Japan’s economy fell into a technical recession in the fourth quarter.

In contrast, the minutes of the late January FOMC meeting revealed that policymakers are in no rush to cut interest rates amid sticky inflation and the still-resilient US economy. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which, along with Thursday’s mostly upbeat US macro data, could assist the US Dollar (USD) to build on the overnight solid rebound from a nearly three-week low. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on environment – as depicted by an extended rally across the global equity markets – might cap gains for the JPY and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair is to the upside.

From a technical perspective, any meaningful pullback is likely to find decent support near the 150.00 psychological mark. This is followed by the weekly low, around the 149.70-149.65 region, which if broken could drag the USD/JPY pair further towards the 149.35-149.30 horizontal support en route to the 149.00 mark. Some follow-through selling below the 148.80-148.70 strong horizontal resistance breakpoint might shift the bias in favour of bearish traders and pave the way for deeper losses.

On the flip side, bulls might still wait for a sustained strength beyond the 150.85-150.90 area, or a multi-month top touched last week, before placing fresh bets. Given that oscillators on the daily chart are holding comfortably in the positive territory and are still away from being in the overbought zone, the USD/JPY pair might then climb to the 151.45 hurdle. The momentum could extend towards the 152.00 neighbourhood, or a multi-decade peak set in October 2022 and retested in November 2023.

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