USD/MXN drops as revised US inflation data fuel expectations for Fed easing.

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• USD/MXN drops as revised US inflation data fuel expectations for Fed easing.
• US inflation adjustments show success in price control, leading to a weakened Dollar outlook.
• Banxico holds rates at 11.25% with changes in policy statements indicating a careful stance on future adjustments.

The Mexican Peso (MXN) advanced steadily in early trading on Friday against the US Dollar (USD) following the latest revision on inflation figures in the United States (US). The data confirms the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) attempt to curb elevated prices is working, opening the door to lower interest rates. Therefore, the Greenback (USD) is trading softer, and the USD/MXN exchanges hands at 17.10, down 0.25%.

Mexico’s economic docket during the last two days has been busy. Inflation is heading up, while the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) decided to hold rates at 11.25%, though it removed hawkish language from the monetary policy statement. Instead, they added, “In the next monetary policy meetings, it will assess, depending on available information, the possibility of adjusting the reference rate.”

The USD/MXN is neutral to downwardly biased after clashing with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 17.12 with buyers unable to decisively break that level. Since then, the exotic pair has resumed its downtrend, though it could remain at around the 17.05/17.17 range. Further downside lies ahead as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows bears are gathering momentum with the slope peaking two days ago before extending its downtrend. The next support levels lie at 17.05, the psychological 17.00 figure and last year’s low of 16.62.

On the other hand, if buyers reclaim the 50-day SMA, that can pave the way to test the 200-day SMA at 17.31. Upside risks emerge once that barrier is cleared. The next real resistance comes at 17.41, the 100-day SMA.

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