US Dollar Index gains ground due to the Fed’s hawkish stance on interest rate trajectory. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• US Dollar Index gains ground due to the Fed’s hawkish stance on interest rate trajectory.
• US Federal Reserve maintained its current interest rates at 5.50% as expected.
• Fed Powell indicated a reduced likelihood of imminent rate cuts due to the elevated inflation and robust economic growth.

The pair currently trades last at 103.54.

The previous day high was 103.74 while the previous day low was 102.94. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 103.44, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 103.25, expected to provide support.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to gain ground for the second successive day, trading higher around 103.50 during the Asian session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthened as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell dispelled the possibility of a rate cut in the upcoming March meeting. This outcome was largely anticipated, considering the Fed’s decision to maintain the current interest rates.

Chairman Powell highlighted the persistent existence of elevated inflation and emphasized robust economic growth, indicating a reduced likelihood of imminent rate cuts. The forthcoming jobs and inflation data are anticipated to play a crucial role in guiding market sentiment and influencing the trajectory of the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle.

The Greenback encountered adversity following the release of discouraging US employment figures on Wednesday. The US ADP Employment Change reported 107K, failing to meet the anticipated 145K for January, while the previous reading stood at 158K in December. Thursday is poised to draw attention to key economic indicators, including US Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, and ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Additionally, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does not foresee contemplating a reduction in the target range unless it attains heightened confidence that inflation is steadily advancing toward the 2.0% target. Despite a moderation in inflation over the past year, it remains at an elevated level. The statement excludes any mention of additional policy firming.

Anticipation in the market regarding the Federal Reserve’s future decisions is extending into the May meeting. According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, there is a probability of over 60% that the Fed will keep its interest rates within the range of 5.25-5.50% during March’s meeting. As a result, the likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut in May surpasses 60%.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

EURUSD currently trading at 103.54 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 103.51 and is trading with a change of 0.03 % .

The pair is trading above its 20 Daily moving average @ 103.01, above its 50 Daily moving average @ 102.82 , below its 100 Daily moving average @ 104.29 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 103.53

The previous day high was 103.74 while the previous day low was 102.94. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 103.44, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 103.25, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 103.06, 102.6, 102.26
• Pivot resistance is noted at 103.85, 104.2, 104.65

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