Natural Gas marches higher in a bounce off the $2.10 barrier.

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• Natural Gas marches higher in a bounce off the $2.10 barrier.
• Traders are focussing on summer futures contracts to salvage the lost first quarter.
• The US Dollar Index is steady ahead of ECB, US GDP, Durable Goods and Jobless Claims.

Natural Gas (XNG/USD) has sunk to a substantial low earlier this week near $2.10. Meanwhile the course has reversed within the futures markets, with summer expiries trading over $1 higher against the more near-term expiries. This means that for Europe it is cheaper to buy Gas now than in four to six months, when it would normally refill up its gas storages. This is making Gas traders scramble to still make a buck after the lacklustre to negative performance in the first weeks of 2024.

The US Dollar (USD) is holding ground in the US Dollar Index near 103, ahead of a big batch of data releases later this Thursday. In just a time span of around 30 minutes, the European Central Bank (ECB) will release its first rate decision for 2024, together with the release of US GDP, US Durable Goods and weekly Jobless Claims. While the Greenback is caught between two important technical elements (cap and floor), a breakout could be seen on the back of the above-mentioned catalysts.

Natural Gas is trading at $2.30 per MMBtu at the time of writing.

Natural Gas got oversold earlier this week, with the commodity rebounding now in a natural move. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is heading back to more normal levels while Gas prices are off the lows. More upside looks granted, though do not expect any exaggerated moves seeing the overall tepid outlook for 2024 in terms of global growth and economic strength.

On the upside, Natural Gas is facing quite some pivotal levels to get back to. First is the low of December 13th at $2.20 which broke on Wednesday. Next is the intermediary level near $2.48. Once that area gets hit, expect to see a test near $2.57 at the purple line.

A break below the yellow line at $2.10 means big issues for Natural Gas, with a fresh multi-year low. First level to look for on the downside is near $1.51, the low of June 2021. Further pre-Ukraine levels would come in sight as well with $1.00 up for grabs in the longer-term

XNG/USD (Daily Chart)

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