The DXY Index recovered toward 102.40 after falling close to 102.20.

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The DXY Index recovered toward 102.40 after falling close to 102.20.

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  • The DXY Index recovered toward 102.40 after falling close to 102.20.
  • December PPIs came in lower than expected at 1.8% YoY.
  • The US 2-year yield fell to lows not seen since May 2023.

The US Dollar (USD), as gauged by the DXY Index, has experienced downward pressure, trading as low as 102.20 amidst weak Producer Price Index (PPI) data from December but then recovered toward 102.40. Following the readings, US bond yields are declining, while dovish bets on the Federal Reserve (Fed) intensified.

The Fed’s dovish stance, based on welcoming the cooling inflation and projecting no rate hikes in 2024, has recently weakened the USD and seems to be offsetting the resilience of the US economy while other economic blocks are weakening. Despite higher CPI numbers, the market remains stubborn and expects the Fed to initiate its easing cycle sooner rather than later, and the soft PPI readings gave markets a reason to bet on a less aggressive approach.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is currently flat and in positive territory, indicates that buyers have halted their momentum but still maintain control in the short run. Adding to this narrative of tentative bullish strength is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Despite being flat, it’s displaying green bars that suggest buying pressure is maintaining a steady pace.

Meanwhile, when examining the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) in the short-term, the buyer’s strength is still in play, given that the pair is trading above the 20-day SMA. Nevertheless, trading under both the 100 and 200-day SMAs, a more significant time frame, indicates sellers hold the upper hand in the middle and long-term perspective.

Support levels: 102.15, 102.00 (20-day SMA), 101.80.
Resistance levels: 102.50, 102.70, 102.80.

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