The US dollar to Mexican peso exchange rate remains stable around 17.1200 despite a slowdown in US inflation, which has prevented the US dollar from further strengthening. This is the case even though there are concerns regarding job data in Mexico.
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- USD/MXN holds steady near 17.1200 as easing US inflation slows US Dollar’s climb, despite concerning Mexican jobs data.
The pair currently trades last at 17.1218.
The previous day high was 17.153 while the previous day low was 17.0694. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 17.1211, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 17.1013, expected to provide support.
USD/MXN stays firm around the 17.1200 region as softer-than-expected inflation data in the United States (US) weighed on the US Dollar (USD), putting a lid on the USD/MXN advancement. Jobs data revealed in Mexico showed some deterioration, though the Unemployment Rate remains at 3%. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN is trading at 17.1204, almost flat, after hitting a daily low of 17.0440.
According to the US Department of Commerce report, US inflation decelerated in May. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) preferred gauge for inflation, the Core PCE, slowed from 4.7% to 4.6% YoY, aligned with estimates, as monthly figures edged lower, flashing signs of cooling down. The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) as a whole edged lower sharply, past the 4% threshold, at 3.8% YoY from April 4.4%, with MoM data slowing to 0.3% from 0.3%.
Later the Chicago PMI improved to 41.5 but remained in contractionary territory. The University of Michigan (UoM) revealed June’s latest poll, with Consumer Sentiment hitting the 64.4 threshold, above the preliminary reading of 63.9.
On the Mexican front, unemployment increased and damaged the Mexican Peso (MXN) prospects. The labor market lost 648,340 jobs in May, its worst performance for a May report since records began in 2005, as reported by the Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo (ENOE). The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate hit 3.0% in May, though headline figures were 2.9%.
After the US and Mexican data release, the USD/MXN climbed from 17.0600 to a four-day high of 17.1712 before trimming 5 cents, as the USD/MXN slid to the 17.1200 area. US Treasury bond yield continued to edge lower and weighed on the greenback. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of a basket of six currencies against the US Dollar, drops more than 0.50%, slumping to 102.830.
Regarding central banks and expectations for monetary policy, the Fed is foreseen to raise rates in July, with odds at 87%, as reported by the CME FedWatch Tool. However, estimates for an additional quarter of percentage raise in November slid compared to yesterday’s odds at around 36%. The Bank of Mexico (Banxico) is expected to keep rates unchanged after two back-to-back meetings holding rates at 11.25%. That said, the interest rate differential still favors the MXN; hence further downside is expected in the USD/MXN pair.
The USD/MXN remains in choppy trading price action, capped within the 17.00-17.20 area, unable to pierce the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 17.2303, seen as the first resistance level for buyers. That would not be enough to shift the USD/MXN’s downtrend, as the May 17 low turned resistance at 17.4038 remains in a safe place and is the next price level to watch for buyers and sellers if the USD/MXN surpasses the 20-day EMA. Conversely, a fall below 17.0500 will expose the year-to-date (YTD) low of 17.0219 before the USD/MXN challenges 17.00.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
USDMXN currently trading at 17.1368 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 17.1252 and is trading with a change of 0.07 % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 17.1368 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | 0.0116 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | 0.0700 |
| 3 | Today daily open | 17.1252 |
The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 17.223, 50 SMA 17.5638, 100 SMA @ 17.9462 and 200 SMA @ 18.7188.
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 17.2230 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 17.5638 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 17.9462 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 18.7188 |
The previous day high was 17.153 while the previous day low was 17.0694. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 17.1211, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 17.1013, expected to provide support.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 17.0788, 17.0323, 16.9952
- Pivot resistance is noted at 17.1624, 17.1995, 17.246
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 17.1530 |
| Previous Daily Low | 17.0694 |
| Previous Weekly High | 17.2656 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 17.0610 |
| Previous Monthly High | 18.0780 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 17.4203 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 17.1211 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 17.1013 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 17.0788 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 17.0323 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 16.9952 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 17.1624 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 17.1995 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 17.2460 |
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