US Dollar Index faces challenges due to subdued US Treasury yields. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
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- US Dollar Index faces challenges due to subdued US Treasury yields.
- The risk appetite is improved possibly on remarks from Fed officials.
- FedWatch Tool suggests a 90% chance of no rate adjustment by the Fed in March.
The pair currently trades last at 104.69.
The previous day high was 104.98 while the previous day low was 104.66. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 104.78, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 104.85, expected to provide resistance.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) grapples to recover recent losses, clinging around 104.70 during the Asian session on Thursday. The downward pressure on the US Dollar (USD) can be attributed to the decline in US Treasury yields, driven by improved risk appetite. At present, the 2-year and 10-year US yields stand at 4.55% and 4.23%, respectively. In terms of economic events, Retail Sales data and Initial Jobless Claims will be closely watched on Thursday.
Market sentiment indicates that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting. According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates steady in the March meeting has surged to nearly 90%. Additionally, there is a modest 37% probability of a rate cut in May, with the likelihood of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut increasing to around 53% in May.
Traders continue to evaluate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook amid robust inflation data and recent statements from Fed officials. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s comments on Wednesday aimed to calm market worries by indicating that higher-than-expected consumer prices don’t necessarily rule out the possibility of the Federal Reserve considering interest rate cuts in 2024.
Late on Wednesday, Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr garnered attention by reaffirming the Fed and its core Federal Open Market Committee’s confidence in the trajectory of US inflation towards the Fed’s 2% target.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
EURUSD currently trading at 104.69 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 104.73 and is trading with a change of -0.04 % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 104.69 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | -0.04 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | -0.04 |
| 3 | Today daily open | 104.73 |
The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 103.79, 50 SMA 102.96, 100 SMA @ 104.14 and 200 SMA @ 103.66.
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 103.79 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 102.96 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 104.14 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 103.66 |
The previous day high was 104.98 while the previous day low was 104.66. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 104.78, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 104.85, expected to provide resistance.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 104.6, 104.47, 104.28
- Pivot resistance is noted at 104.92, 105.1, 105.23
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 104.98 |
| Previous Daily Low | 104.66 |
| Previous Weekly High | 104.60 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 103.94 |
| Previous Monthly High | 103.82 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 101.30 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 104.78 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 104.85 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 104.60 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 104.47 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 104.28 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 104.92 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 105.10 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 105.23 |
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