European shares rose with tech stocks leading the charge. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
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- European shares rose with tech stocks leading the charge.
- ECB keeps rates unchanged, but dovish tone strikes at rate markets.
- EU data weakness suggests worsening business confidence.
The pair currently trades last at 16884.35.
The previous day high was 16904.36 while the previous day low was 16660.57. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 16811.23, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 16753.7, expected to provide support.
European equities saw moderate gains on Thursday after the European Central Bank’s (ECB) dovish hold on interest rates saw investor risk sentiment improve on increased hopes of rate cuts heading into the middle of 2024.
ECB Press Conference: Lagarde explains decision to keep rates steady, speaks on policy outlook
The ECB held rates as markets broadly expected, with ECB President Christine Lagarde stating that it was far too early in the disinflation cycle to begin discussing rate cuts, but the ECB head did note that inflationary pressures on several fronts are beginning to ease, causing markets to step higher and European money markets to reprice bets on how soon and how deep the ECB would begin cutting.
European swaps are now pricing in 50 basis points of rate cuts from the ECB by June, with a total 150 basis points through the end of 2024, flaunting ECB President Lagarde’s recent comments that overeager market bets on rate cuts would make it more difficult for the ECB to normalize policy. Markets are currently pricing in a 60% chance of the first rate cut coming as soon the April ECB rate meeting.
Germany’s IFO Business Climate unexpectedly declined to a 15-month low in January, printing at 85.2 versus the forecast 86.7 and falling back from the previous month’s 86.3 (revised from 86.4). The Business Expectations survey also declined to 83.5 compared to the expected 84.8 and the previous month’s 84.2 (also revised from 84.3).
The German DAX index rose by a scant 0.1%, climbing 17 points to close at €16,906.92, with France’s CAC40 rising 8.56 points to close at €7,464.20, up 0.11%.
The pan-European STOXX6090 major equity index climbed nearly a third of a percent on Thursday, rising 1.44 points to end the day at €478.53, while London’s FTSE index rose 2.06 points to end the day at £7,529.73, in the green by a scant 0.03%.
Germany’s DAX index continues to pin into near-term highs, climbing back over the €16,900.00 handle and cycling the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near €16,650.00.
The DAX is well-bid on the daily candles, bolstered by the 50-day SMA rising through €16,400.00 with the long-term 200-day SMA rotating into a bullish twist just below the 200-day SMA.
The DAX is up over 15% from last October’s bottom bids near €14,618.00.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
EURUSD currently trading at 16884.35 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 16854.31 and is trading with a change of 0.18 % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 16884.35 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | 30.04 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | 0.18 |
| 3 | Today daily open | 16854.31 |
The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 16625.96, 50 SMA 16453.48, 100 SMA @ 15864.79 and 200 SMA @ 15898.68.
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 16625.96 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 16453.48 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 15864.79 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 15898.68 |
The previous day high was 16904.36 while the previous day low was 16660.57. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 16811.23, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 16753.7, expected to provide support.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 16708.47, 16562.62, 16464.68
- Pivot resistance is noted at 16952.26, 17050.2, 17196.05
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 16904.36 |
| Previous Daily Low | 16660.57 |
| Previous Weekly High | 16730.15 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 16328.29 |
| Previous Monthly High | 16984.44 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 16229.16 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 16811.23 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 16753.70 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 16708.47 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 16562.62 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 16464.68 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 16952.26 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 17050.20 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 17196.05 |
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