#EURUSD @ 1.09840 ‘s early losses trimmed following military actions in Yemen, driving investors towards safe-haven assets. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
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- EUR/USD’s early losses trimmed following military actions in Yemen, driving investors towards safe-haven assets.
- US PPI data falls short of expectations, fueling speculation of a potential Fed rate cut in March.
- Eurozone inflation aligns with projections; ECB officials’ comments on rate cuts add to market considerations.
The pair currently trades last at 1.09840.
The previous day high was 1.1004 while the previous day low was 1.093. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0976, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0958, expected to provide support.
The Euro (EUR) trimmed some of its losses in early trading during the North American session after it dived toward its daily low of 1.0935 amid an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The US and the UK launching attacks against Houthi shifted sentiment sour, which had subsided lately. Hence, the EUR/USD trades at 1.0970, up 0.02%.
According to Reuters, US, and British airplanes, ships, and submarines launched dozens of air strikes across Yemen overnight in retaliation to Houthi, which has been attacking ship vessels in the Red Sea. Therefore, market participants seeking safety bought Gold and safe-haven peers, which weighed on the EUR/USD in the overnight session.
Aside from geopolitical events, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed the Producer Price Index (PPI) slid below estimates, with the PPI monthly dropping -0.1%, below forecasts of 0.1%. In a 12-month reading, the PPI rose by 1%, below estimates of 1.9%. Core PPI was unchanged at 0% compared with November’s data but below estimates, while year-over-year figures dipped below projections and the previous reading, from 2% to 1.8%.
After the data, traders had increased the chances for a March rate cut from 70% yesterday up to 84% at the time of writing and projected that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates by 170 basis points toward the year’s end.
Even though the latest consumer inflation report in the US showed that prices remained elevated, investors seem confident that the US central bank would ease policy sooner than expected. In the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), Fed officials projected three 25 basis points of rate cuts toward the end of 2024.
Meanwhile, Fed policymakers reiterated that cutting rates in March is too soon while adding that even though progress on inflation had been achieved, December’s data bucked the trend.
On the Eurozone (EU) front, it revealed that inflation in France was aligned with forecasts of 3.7% and higher than November’s 3.5%. Besides that, European Central Bank (ECB) officials had crossed the wires, as Chief Economist Philip Lane said that rate cuts are “not a topic for the near term.”
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is neutral to upward biased, though back-to-back doji’s confirm indecision amongst traders. For a bullish resumption, the Euro needs to crack the 1.1000 figure to challenge a two-and-a-half-year resistance trendline at around 1.1030/50, followed by the 1.1100 mark. On the flip side, bears must drag prices below 1.0900, followed by a decisive break below Friday’s 9 daily low of 1.0876 on its path to 1.0800.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
EURUSD currently trading at 1.0976 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.0972 and is trading with a change of 0.04 % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 1.0976 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | 0.0004 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | 0.0400 |
| 3 | Today daily open | 1.0972 |
The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 1.0981, above its 50 Daily moving average @ 1.0893 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 1.0766 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 1.0848
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 1.0981 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 1.0893 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 1.0766 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 1.0848 |
The previous day high was 1.1004 while the previous day low was 1.093. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0976, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0958, expected to provide support.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 1.0933, 1.0895, 1.086
- Pivot resistance is noted at 1.1007, 1.1042, 1.108
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 1.1004 |
| Previous Daily Low | 1.0930 |
| Previous Weekly High | 1.1046 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 1.0877 |
| Previous Monthly High | 1.1140 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 1.0724 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 1.0976 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 1.0958 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 1.0933 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 1.0895 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 1.0860 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 1.1007 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 1.1042 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 1.1080 |
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