Despite the strengthening of USD, Euro remains firm at 1.0746 as policy shifts are expected.
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- USD strengthens, yet Euro holds firm, with EUR/USD at 1.0746 amid policy shifts anticipation.
The pair currently trades last at 1.07455.
The previous day high was 1.0785 while the previous day low was 1.0743. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0759, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0769, expected to provide resistance.
EUR/USD pares some of its earlier gains, still trading in a positive territory amidst a busy week in the economic agenda, with major central banks set to adjust their monetary policies. The US Dollar (USD) strengthened ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision but is yet to overshadow a solid Euro (EUR). At the time of writing, the EUR/USD exchanges hands at 1.0746, almost flat.
Wall Street is trading with modest gains ahead of the Federañ Reserve’s (Fed) June monetary policy meeting. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, as shown by money market futures, with the CME Fed WatchTool odds for no change in June at around 71%. Nonetheless, for the next month, odds for a 25 bps lie above the 50% threshold, cementing the case for a Fed skip followed by a rate increase.
However, the recent two monetary policy decisions of significant central banks surprised the markets with unexpected decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC). Although, at a minimum, EUR/USD traders should be aware the Fed could rock the boat and lift rates in June.
On the Eurozone (EU) front, the economic calendar on Monday was light, but it would increase the tone on Tuesday with Germany’s inflation. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise rates by 25 bps, which, according to estimates for the Fed and the ECB’s decision, would reduce the interest rate differential between the US and the EU, favoring the latter.
That said, upside pressure on the EUR/USD is expected. Still, economic deterioration in the US could trigger the “dollar smile” theory, which supports the greenback in phases of global economic stress.
Upcoming events
The US economic agenda will feature May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the NFIB Business Optimism Index. On the EU front, the German and Spain Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for both countries and the ZEW Economic Sentiment.
The EUR/USD has been consolidated within the 1.0670/1.0790 area for the last eight days, unable to break beyond the boundaries of the range, but with the 100, 20, and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), sitting above the spot price. Hence, the EUR/USD is slightly tilted downwards in the near term. For a bearish continuation, the EUR/USD needs to clear the June 9 daily low at 1.0742, which could open the door for further losses once cleared. The next support would be the 1.0700 figure, followed by the last week’s low of 1.0667, before dripping towards the lows of 2020 at around 1.0635. Conversely, the EUR/USD resistance levels lie at the confluence of the 100 and 20-day EMAs at 1.0766/68, followed by the 1.0800 mark. The next resistance emerges at 1.0811, the 50-day EMA.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
EURUSD currently trading at 1.0755 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.0749 and is trading with a change of 0.06 % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 1.0755 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | 0.0006 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | 0.0600 |
| 3 | Today daily open | 1.0749 |
The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 1.0759, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 1.0885 , below its 100 Daily moving average @ 1.0808 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 1.052
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 1.0759 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 1.0885 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 1.0808 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 1.0520 |
The previous day high was 1.0785 while the previous day low was 1.0743. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0759, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0769, expected to provide resistance.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 1.0733, 1.0717, 1.069
- Pivot resistance is noted at 1.0775, 1.0801, 1.0817
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 1.0785 |
| Previous Daily Low | 1.0743 |
| Previous Weekly High | 1.0787 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 1.0667 |
| Previous Monthly High | 1.1092 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 1.0635 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 1.0759 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 1.0769 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 1.0733 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 1.0717 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 1.0690 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 1.0775 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 1.0801 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 1.0817 |
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