#AUDUSD @ 0.67811 stalls this week’s bullish trend near the 100-day SMA, just ahead of the 0.6700 mark. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• AUD/USD stalls this week’s bullish trend near the 100-day SMA, just ahead of the 0.6700 mark.
• A modest USD recovery from a one-year high turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind.
• Expectations for an imminent Fed rate-hike pause to cap the USD and lend support to the pair.

The pair currently trades last at 0.67811.

The previous day high was 0.6797 while the previous day low was 0.6685. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.6754, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.6728, expected to provide support.

The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its weekly gains recorded over the past three sessions and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses heading into the North American session on Friday. The pair, however, trades just a few pips below its highest level since February 24 touched on Thursday and is currently placed around the 0.6770-0.6775 area, nearly unchanged for the day.

A modest US Dollar (USD) bounce from a one-year low touched earlier this Friday is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair. The upside for the Greenback, however, remains capped amid firming expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause its rate-hiking cycle amid signs of cooling inflationary pressures in the US. The bets were lifted by this week’s release of softer consumer inflation figures and the Producer Price Index, which suggested that disinflation is progressing smoothly.

Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone might contribute to gains for the safe-haven buck and lend support to the risk-sensitive Aussie. Apart from this, the upbeat Australian jobs data on Thursday
revived bets for a 25 bps rate hike at the next Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting in May and supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying around the AUD/USD pair. That said, bulls might wait to move beyond the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the 0.6700 mark, before placing fresh bets.

Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of monthly Retail Sales figures and the Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader market risk sentiment, might influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register strong weekly gains.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

AUDUSD currently trading at 0.6774 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 0.678 and is trading with a change of -0.09 % .

The pair is trading above its 20 Daily moving average @ 0.6695, above its 50 Daily moving average @ 0.6752 , below its 100 Daily moving average @ 0.68 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 0.6745

The previous day high was 0.6797 while the previous day low was 0.6685. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.6754, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.6728, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 0.6711, 0.6643, 0.66
• Pivot resistance is noted at 0.6823, 0.6865, 0.6934

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