#USDCAD @ 1.33340 is oscillating near 1.3340 after an intense sell-off inspired by lower US consumer inflation expectations. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/CAD is oscillating near 1.3340 after an intense sell-off inspired by lower US consumer inflation expectations.
• The USD Index printed a fresh 11-month low at 100.42 as significantly decelerated US PPI joined already softened US CPI.
• US labor market conditions eased further as weekly Initial Jobless Claims jumped to 239K from the estimates of 232K.

The pair currently trades last at 1.33340.

The previous day high was 1.3489 while the previous day low was 1.3428. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.3451, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.3466, expected to provide resistance.

The USD/CAD pair has turned quiet around 1.3340 after a nosedive move on Thursday as the aggressively softened United States Producer Price Index (PPI) confirmed that US consumer inflation expectations are set for a sheer decline. The Loonie asset has registered a four-day losing streak and the absence of signs of recovery is supporting more downside ahead.

S&P500 futures were heavily bought by the market participants as fears of further rate hikes beyond May receded as inflation has decelerated, indicating a cheerful market mood. However, Morgan Stanley US chief equity strategist Mike Wilson has a contrary view on S&P500. He expects the base-case scenario for the S&P500 to end the year is 3,900. The analyst at Morgan Stanley supported his view citing that, the earnings situation is way worse than what the consensus thinks and the banking stress only makes us even more confident of that.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) printed a fresh 11-month low at 100.42 as significantly decelerated US PPI joined the already softened US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and trimmed fears of persistent inflation. Annual headline US PPI decelerated to 2.7% vs. the estimate of 3.0%. And core PPI remained in line with expectations at 3.4%. The reason behind the severe decline in US PPI is the lower gasoline prices recorded in March. Producers passed on the benefit of lower input costs to ultimate consumers by reducing the prices of goods and services at factory gates.

Apart from that, US labor market conditions eased further as weekly Initial Jobless Claims jumped to 239K from the estimates of 232K and the former release of 228K. This has also receded fears of stubborn US inflation.

On the oil front, oil prices dropped below $83.00 after OPEC kept a stable oil demand outlook. The oil cartel left the global oil demand growth forecast for 2023 unchanged at 2.32 million barrels per day, as reported by Reuters.

It is worth noting that Canada is the leading exporter of oil to the United States and lower oil prices would impact the Canadian Dollar.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDCAD currently trading at 1.3342 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.3442 and is trading with a change of -0.74 % .

The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 1.3582, 50 SMA 1.3563, 100 SMA @ 1.3531 and 200 SMA @ 1.3397.

The previous day high was 1.3489 while the previous day low was 1.3428. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.3451, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.3466, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 1.3417, 1.3392, 1.3355
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1.3478, 1.3514, 1.3539

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