BoE’s Tenreyro: BoE might need to cut rates sooner than thought

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Bank of England (BoE) interest rate-setter Silvana Tenreyro said on Tuesday, “I expect that the high current level of bank rate will require an earlier and faster reversal, to avoid a significant inflation undershoot.”

With bank rate moving further into restrictive territory, I think a looser stance is needed to meet the inflation target

Looser stance can be achieved either through lower bank rate today, or through lower bank rate in future

In the absence of further counterbalancing cost-push shocks, I judge inflation is likely to fall well below target

Cannot be complacent about the ability of QE to substitute for interest-rate policy if, when inflation falls, we find ourselves still in a world of low equilibrium interest rates

High-frequency private-sector regular pay growth has fallen back sharply in recent months

Terms of trade shock to uk has unwound faster than i expected

I expect lower price inertia from second-round effects via wage growth, given a lower rate of headline inflation

We will see less of a drag on demand and the output gap from further falls in real income

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