#AUDUSD @ 0.67762 When is the RBA Interest Rate Decision and how could it affect ?
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After announcing 10 consecutive rate hikes so far, hawks at the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) appear running out of steam. However, some on the floors do expect the Aussie central bank to mark the one last hawkish dance before pausing the rate hike trajectory. That said, the RBA is up for an Interest Rate decision around 04:30 AM GMT on Tuesday.
It’s worth noting the RBA is likely to throw dice on the dove’s side as traders remain divided over the 25 basis points (bps) of a rate hike to the 3.60% benchmark rate.
Given the recently mixed statements in the RBA minutes and a contrasting play between inflation and wage numbers, not to forget the talks of policy pivot, the AUD/USD traders will be more interested in hearing about the end of the rate hike trajectory, making this event crucial.
Ahead of the event, Analysts at ANZ said,
On the same line, FXStreet’s Matias Salord said,
AUD/USD retreats from the highest levels in five weeks while refreshing the intraday low near 0.6770. In doing so, the Aussie pair portrays the pre-RBA anxiety among traders. Also challenging the risk-barometer pair are the fears of EU-Russia tussles and the US-China tension, not to forget the market’s consolidation of the week-start moves amid a light calendar ahead of the RBA Interest Rate Decision.
That said, the RBA is likely to trouble trades even if it manages to announce a 0.25% rate hike, which also is less expected, as the recently softer data and a shift in the RBA’s tone join macro inflation woes.
Should the RBA shows readiness to pause the rate hike trajectory from the next meeting, or surprises the markets by doing the same in today’s RBA Rate Statement, the AUD/USD may have a further downside to trace.
Technically, a convergence of the 200-day EMA and an upward-sloping resistance line from mid-March, around 0.6820 by the press time, appears a tough nut to crack for the AUD/USD buyers.
Reserve Bank of Australia Preview: To pause or not to pause
AUD/USD aptly portrays pre-RBA anxiety at five-week top below 0.6800
AUD/USD Price Analysis: Further upside hinges on 0.6820 breakout and RBA
RBA Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view of the Australian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish.
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