#USDINR @ 82.7530 picks up bids to pare the previous losses amid risk-off mood. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/INR picks up bids to pare the previous losses amid risk-off mood.
• Fears surrounding mystery objects, hawkish Fed roil risk profile and underpin US Dollar after Friday’s upbeat data.
• Light calendar, cautious mood ahead of key data/events also exert downside pressure on Indian Rupee.

The pair currently trades last at 82.7530.

The previous day high was 82.6646 while the previous day low was 82.3336. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 82.46, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 82.5381, expected to provide support.

USD/INR marches towards 82.80, up 0.30% intraday, as it snaps the three-day downtrend during early Monday. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair picks up bids to reverse the pullback from the previous monthly high as the US Dollar remains firmer amid the sour sentiment.

That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rises 0.20% intraday to 103.80 after a two-week uptrend as Fed talks remain hawkish while the US data appear positive. Adding strength to the greenback could be its safe-haven demand as the risk profile weakens amid geopolitical concerns surrounding unidentified objects that flew over the borders surrounding the US and China.

US Military General recently turned down the market’s fears of Chinese spying on the US by saying, “(We) have no reason to think latest objects are Chinese.” Even so, the fact that the US shot down nearly four such objects and China prepares to hit one weighs on sentiment.

On a different page, upbeat US inflation expectations and firmer Michigan Consumer Sentiment for February may have allowed Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker to push back the chatters of a Fed rate cut during 2023. However, the policymaker did mention, “Fed not likely to cut this year but may be able to in 2024 if inflation starts ebbing.” His comments were mostly in line with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s cautious optimism and hence challenge the US Dollar buyers.

At home, recovery in Adani stocks and optimism surrounding the government’s deficit-cutting measures seem to battle with the broadly downbeat sentiment due to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) hawkish bias. It’s worth noting that the exodus of foreign fund outflows, due to the Adani saga, also weighs on the Indian Rupee.

Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures fade the previous day’s corrective bounce off a one-week low, down 0.35% around 4,080 at the latest, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields remain sidelined near 3.73% after refreshing a five-week high on Friday. Further, the Indian equity benchmarks are mildly offered by the press time.

Looking forward, USD/INR pair traders may witness lackluster moves ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, up for publishing on Tuesday.

USD/INR pair’s U-turn from 50-DMA, close to 82.20 by the press time, allows pair buyers to aim for a four-month-old descending resistance line, near 82.90.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDINR currently trading at 82.755 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 82.5022 and is trading with a change of 0.31% % .

The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 81.8587, 50 SMA 82.2015, 100 SMA @ 82.0484 and 200 SMA @ 80.4947.

The previous day high was 82.6646 while the previous day low was 82.3336. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 82.46, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 82.5381, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 82.3356, 82.1691, 82.0046
• Pivot resistance is noted at 82.6666, 82.8311, 82.9976

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