OECD countries to remain in a regime of scarcity and inflation – Natixis

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After rising sharply, the prices of many commodities and transport prices have fallen markedly again. Analysts at Natixis believe that many mechanisms are driving us towards such a regime of scarcity. It is therefore difficult to believe in a return to a regime of abundance.

“Despite the current fall in the prices of many commodities (oil, metals, agricultural products, transport, etc.), we believe that OECD countries, for a number of reasons (energy transition, restoration of wage earners’ bargaining power, reshoring, shift in the structure of demand, geopolitical tensions), will remain in a regime of scarcity, and therefore inflation.”

“This will result in continued relatively high inflation, income distribution conflicts and a more restrictive monetary policy.”

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