As the EUR/USD currency pair hovers around 1.08654, bearish sentiment grows stronger and approaches the lowest point of the week. Investors are anxiously awaiting important economic data from the European Union and the United States.

…
This is a premium post.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level4)]Please register for FREE REGISTER to read full post below containing analysis. In case of any error or you think you are not able to read the full post below, please email us at support#nehcap.com [lwa][/s2If] [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

• EUR/USD bears flirt with the weekly low as markets await the key EU/US data.

The pair currently trades last at 1.08654.

The previous day high was 1.0963 while the previous day low was 1.0897. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0922, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0938, expected to provide resistance.

EUR/USD grinds near the weekly low surrounding 1.0860 as bears attack the monthly support line amid early Friday in Asia. In doing so, the Euro pair portrays the typical pre-data anxiety as the top-tier inflation numbers from the Eurozone and the US loom. Also putting a floor under the major currency pair could be the market’s risk-on mood.

EUR/USD dropped the most in a week the previous day to refresh the weekly bottom after the US data marked mostly upbeat outcomes but the European counterpart came in mixed. Not only that, but the comparatively more hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) signals versus the market’s lack of acceptance of the European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers’ optimism also weigh on the Euro pair.

That said, the Eurozone Consumer Confidence matched -16.1 market forecast and prior for June while Business Climate eased to 0.06 from 0.19 prior for the said month. Further, the bloc’s Economic Sentiment Indicator for June eased to 95.3 versus analysts’ estimations of 96.0 and 96.5 previous readings. Additionally, the old continent’s Industrial Confidence deteriorated but Service Sentiment came in better-than-forecast for the said month.

However, Germany’s inflation per the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 6.4% YoY in June from 6.1% in May and 6.3% expected. On the same line, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) favorite inflation gauge, namely the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) also jumped to 6.8% on a yearly basis from 6.3% prior and 6.7% market forecasts.

Elsewhere, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bank of Spain’s Governor Pablo Hernandez de Cos said on Thursday that the ECB September meeting is absolutely open regarding interest rates. Earlier in the week, a slew of ECB Policymakers including President Christine Lagarde spoke at the ECB Forum and advocated for higher rates, with most signaling a rate hike in July being undoubtful.

It’s worth noting that the ECB’s Economic Bulletin said, “Overall, changes in price competitiveness since the pandemic appears to have neither aggravated nor further unwound external imbalances.”

On the other hand, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, mostly known as the Real GDP, grew at the 2.0% rate for the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 versus the 1.3% initial estimation. Further, the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims slumped to 239K for the week ended on June 23 compared to 265K expected and revised prior. However, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price for Q1 2023 eased to 4.1% QoQ from 4.2% expected and prior whereas the Pending Home Sales slumped to -2.7% MoM for May compared to 0.2% expected and -0.4% prior (revised).

Further, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the Fourth Conference on Financial Stability hosted by the Bank of Spain, in Madrid, while saying, “A strong majority of Fed policymakers expect two or more rate hikes by year-end.” Additionally, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic told reporters regarding future rate increases, as reported by Reuters, that he doesn’t see as much urgency to move as stated by others, including Chairman Jerome Powell. The policymaker, however, recently took a U-turn while saying, “I think it’s unambiguous that inflation has fallen considerably.”

Amid these plays, Wall Street closed positive but the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields also rallied while the US Dollar Index (DXY) refreshed its weekly top before retreating to 103.40.

Looking ahead, the first readings of Eurozone HICP and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation numbers for June will precede the US Core PCE Price Index for May to entertain the EUR/USD pair traders. While the market forecasts don’t flash any alarming signals for the scheduled data, downbeat figures of the US inflation and a surprise positive in the Eurozone data may trigger the major currency pair’s rebound from the short-term key support.

Although the EUR/USD pair’s daily closing below the 50-DMA, around 1.0870 by the press time, keeps the sellers hopeful, an upward-sloping support line from late May, close to 1.0860 restricts the quote’s immediate downside.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

EURUSD currently trading at 1.0867 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.0913 and is trading with a change of -0.42% % .

The pair is trading above its 20 Daily moving average @ 1.0841, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 1.0875 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 1.0816 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 1.058

The previous day high was 1.0963 while the previous day low was 1.0897. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0922, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0938, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 1.0886, 1.0858, 1.082
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1.0952, 1.099, 1.1017

[/s2If]
Nehcap Expert Advisor
The NEHCAP MT4 EA is high quality professional trading system geared to generate returns without using GRID or martingales. Each trade has strict risk per trade parameter. The pairs under management include EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDCAD, AUDNZD,GBPAUD, EURAUD, EURCAD, CHFJPY and many more.
The system is trading live: LIVE ACCOUNT TRACKING
You can run it free. Apply for a free trial and track our account. Buy the system or use profit share mechanism to generate returns on your MT4.
Join Our Telegram Group