#EURNOK @ 11.90472 to come above 12 as Krone will weaken further until the summer – Nordea

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Economists at Nordea answer some questions that keep reappearing when discussing the Norwegian Krone and Norges Bank.

“If EUR/NOK rises from 12 to 14 over the duration of a month no intervention will come, but if EUR/NOK rises from 12 to 14 in one day, then it is likely that Norges Bank will step in.”

“We believe that talk and speculation of a 50 bps rate hike from Norges Bank this week could leave some participants wrong-footed. If Norges Bank hikes by 25 bps, as we expect, the NOK will likely weaken further.”

“We expect the NOK to weaken further until the summer, with EUR/NOK coming above 12. However, after the summer, the NOK sales will be wound down and most central banks will pause their rate hikes. We see a lower EUR/NOK towards year-end, closer to 11.00, but the NOK will likely remain weak in a historic context for some time.”

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