ECB tightening expectations have picked up a bit – BBH

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Economists at BBH note that European Central Bank (ECB) officials stressed that increased volatility in inflation and growth are making policymaking more difficult.

“Panetta focused on geopolitics and the Ukraine invasion, noting “Geopolitical shocks may trigger persistent output and inflation volatility, with multiple spillovers. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has, for instance, disrupted energy and commodities markets, with major implications for inflation.” Elsewhere, Villeroy focused on climate change, noting “Climate transition entails structural changes to the global economy that are both universal and certain, with an overall and possibly negative supply shock. Second, higher volatility is likely, which means shocks on both activity and inflation. This is where we central banks have to do our job in order to maintain a solid anchoring of long-term inflation expectations despite higher volatility. We cannot just look through it, since it is not an unexpected and transitory shock” Both are correct to highlight these long-term issues.”

“ECB tightening expectations have picked up a bit. The next policy meeting is May 4 and WIRP suggests about 30% odds of a 50 bp hike then. After that, another 25 bp hike is priced in for June 15 followed by another 25 bp hike July 27. Odds of one final hike in in September or October top out near 45% and so the peak policy rate is now seen between 3.75-4.0%%, up from3.75% at the start of last week and 3.50% at the start of the week before that.”

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