#GBPUSD @ 1.20574 is expecting further downside to near 1.2000 ahead of US Inflation. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• GBP/USD is expecting further downside to near 1.2000 ahead of US Inflation.
• Fears of an upside surprise in US inflation and back-to-back Pentagon events are portraying a risk-off impulse.
• UK FM Jeremy Hunt is confident that the UK inflation will be halved if the administration sticks to its plan.

The pair currently trades last at 1.20574.

The previous day high was 1.2139 while the previous day low was 1.2047. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.2082, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.2104, expected to provide resistance.

The GBP/USD pair is displaying a sideways action around 1.2050 in the early Asian session. The Cable is expected to display further downside as the odds of a policy tightening pause by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have vanished entirely and more interest rate hikes are expected to continue its battle against stubborn inflation.

Renewed concerns of more policy tightening by the Fed and disappointed quarterly earnings forced S&P500 to settle last week with the highest losses since December. This has strengthened the risk-aversion theme further. Also, the Pentagon shot down an unidentified object over Alaska on Saturday. This is the second event in less than a week after the Pentagon shot down the spy Chinese balloon, which was later identified as a civilian by the Chinese administration. The events are portraying more traction for the risk-off impulse.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) looks set to add gains above 103.35 ahead of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, scheduled for Tuesday. A Reuters poll expects further upside in the monthly headline and core inflation by 0.4%.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker reiterated his view that the central bank will continue hiking interest rates to above 5%. The Fed policymaker has favored a small interest rate hike and sees no recession ahead. Also, the expression of a rate cut is unlikely this year.

On the United Kingdom front, preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Q4 remained stagnant as expected by the market participants. Also, the annual GDP matched expectations of 0.4% expansion vs. the former release of 1.9%. The Manufacturing and Industrial Production remained negative but managed to deliver less contraction than expected.

UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt said “The fact the UK was the fastest growing economy in the G7 last year, as well as avoiding a recession, shows our economy is more resilient than many feared.” He further added, “If we stick to our plan to halve inflation this year, we can be confident of having amongst the best prospects for growth of anywhere in Europe.”

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

GBPUSD currently trading at 1.2054 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.2054 and is trading with a change of 0.0 % .

The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 1.2257, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 1.2186 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 1.1845 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 1.1945

The previous day high was 1.2139 while the previous day low was 1.2047. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.2082, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.2104, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 1.2021, 1.1988, 1.1929
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1.2113, 1.2172, 1.2205

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