#USDIDR @ 15,120.0 bounces off intraday low during three-day downtrend. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

…
This is a premium post.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level4)]Please register for PREMIUM VERSION HERE to read full post below containing analysis. In case of any error or you think you are not able to read the full post below, please email us at support#nehcap.com [lwa][/s2If] [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level4)]

• USD/IDR bounces off intraday low during three-day downtrend.
• Indonesia Retail Sales grew 0.7% in December versus 1.3% prior.
• Cautious optimism in Asia, US Dollar retreat keep pair bears hopeful.
• Hawkish Fed concerns, downbeat data can challenge Rupiah buyers.

The pair currently trades last at 15120.0.

The previous day high was 15159.0 while the previous day low was 15076.55. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 15108.0459, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 15127.5041, expected to provide resistance.

USD/IDR picks up bids to extend the early-day rebound from intraday low as Indonesia reports downbeat Retail Sales figures on Thursday. Even so, the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) pair remains weak for the third consecutive day amid broad US Dollar weakness and cautious optimism in the Asia-Pacific region.

Indonesia Retail Sales grew 0.7% YoY in December, compared to 1.3% previous growth. Earlier in the week, Indonesia reported the fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data and showed that the economy grew 0.36% QoQ and 5.01% YoY during Q4 versus the 0.33% and 4.84% market forecasts. In doing so, Indonesia’s GDP stayed below the 1.81% QoQ and 5.72% YoY previous releases but raced to a nine-year high.

It should be noted that the receding fears of the US-China jitters, due to the balloon shooting, join hopes of People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) rate cuts and the restart of the China-based companies listing on the US exchanges seem to favor risk appetite in Asia.

Elsewhere, the US Dollar Index (DXY) traces the Treasury bond yields to reverse the previous day’s recovery moves, down 0.11% intraday near 103.35 at the latest. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields reversed from a one-month high to snap a three-day uptrend on Wednesday, pressured around 3.61% by the press time.

The reason for the US Treasury yields’ retreat could be linked to the easing fears of the US recession, backed by comments from US President Joe Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Alternatively, comments portraying inflation fears and supporting the higher rates at the Federal Reserve (Fed) from the Fed officials, as well as the US diplomats, challenge the USD/IDR bears. Fed Governor Christopher Waller teased a long fight with a 2.0% inflation target by citing expectations of tighter monetary policy for longer than expected. New York Federal Reserve President John Williams was almost on the same line while saying that the labor market is still very strong and noted that they have more work to do on rates, adding data will determine the path of rate hikes. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said that the central bank remains focused on restoring price stability, as inflation is still running too high. She added that they would need a restrictive monetary policy for some time.

That said, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen mentioned, “While inflation remained elevated, there were encouraging signs that supply-demand mismatches were easing in many sectors of the economy.” Elsewhere, US President Joe Biden said during a PBS interview that there will be no US recession in 2023 or 2024.

Moving on, risk catalysts could entertain USD/IDR traders amid a light calendar with only US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be eyed for fresh impulse.

USD/IDR remains above the 21-DMA support of $15,065 amid bullish MACD signals and steady RSI, which in turn push back bearish bias unless the quote breaks the immediate DMA support.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDIDR currently trading at 15125 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 15136.95 and is trading with a change of -0.08% % .

The pair is trading above its 20 Daily moving average @ 15061.6825, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 15373.799 , below its 100 Daily moving average @ 15432.213 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 15118.6285

The previous day high was 15159.0 while the previous day low was 15076.55. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 15108.0459, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 15127.5041, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 15089.3333, 15041.7167, 15006.8833
• Pivot resistance is noted at 15171.7833, 15206.6167, 15254.2333

[/s2If]
Join Our Telegram Group