#AUDUSD @ 0.62831 The aussie bounces up from six-month lows at 0.6170 and returns to 0.6300. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• The aussie bounces up from six-month lows at 0.6170 and returns to 0.6300.
• The US dollar losses ground as the effect of US CPI data ebbs.
• AUD/USD might depreciate below 0.6000 – ING.

The pair currently trades last at 0.62831.

The previous day high was 0.6299 while the previous day low was 0.6235. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.6275, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.626, expected to provide support.

The Australian dollar is going through a sharp recovery during Thursday’s US session erasing loses from earlier on the day. The pair has bounced from six-month lows at 0,6170, returning to levels right below 0.6300 and turning positive on the day.

The Aussie pares losses with the US dollar losing ground as the effect of the US inflation report start to settle. Investors might be coming to terms with the idea that a 100 BP rate hike in November is rather unlikely, especially after the moderately dovish tone of September’s FOMC minutes.

According to the US CPI data, prices accelerated at a 0.4% pace in September, well beyond expectations of a 0.2% increase, with the year inflation surging 8.2% higher. These figures triggered hopes that the Federal Reserve could increase borrowing costs at a more aggressive pace in November.

Federal Fund Futures have priced in a 13% chance of a 100 basis points rate hike immediately after the data release and the US dollar surged across the board. The US Dollar Index (DXY) appreciated to a fresh-24-year high at 114.70 to pull down to the 112.00 area at the moment of writing.

On a longer-term perspective, currency analysts at ING, observe see the Aussie likely to extend its decline to levels below 0.6000: “We remain bearish on AUD/USD into year-end, as risk sentiment fragility, China’s economic (and currency) woes and a strong USD (…). A break below 0.60 this year is entirely possible.”

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

AUDUSD currently trading at 0.6273 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 0.6277 and is trading with a change of -0.06 % .

The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 0.6504, 50 SMA 0.6741, 100 SMA @ 0.6852 and 200 SMA @ 0.7042.

The previous day high was 0.6299 while the previous day low was 0.6235. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.6275, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.626, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 0.6242, 0.6207, 0.6178
• Pivot resistance is noted at 0.6305, 0.6334, 0.6369

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