#EURNOK @ 10.64093 and EUR/SEK to target 10.70 and 11.30, respectively – Credit Suisse
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Scandinavian FX remain exposed to mixed central bank messages and Russia-related geopolitical risks –analysts at Credit Suisse target EUR/NOK at 10.70 and EUR/SEK at 11.30 by the end of Q4.
“On 22 Sep, Norges Bank left the terminal rate estimate unchanged at around 3%, right as markets instead pushed yields higher in the rest of G10. This projected monetary policy divergence, especially vs an increasingly hawkish ECB, creates fresh EUR/NOK upside risk. We now target 10.70 and see the pair in a 10.00-10.90 range in Q4.”
“Markets are now expecting the ECB to beat the Riksbank to the punch by tightening at a faster pace, even with the latter expected to reach a higher terminal rate down the line. SEK will underperform further if the message stays mixed. We now target 11.30 in EUR/SEK.”
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