#EURUSD @ 0.97868 trips down ahead of the end of the week, month and Q3. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• EUR/USD trips down ahead of the end of the week, month and Q3.
• US Fed officials continued with their “restrictive policy” rhetoric, agreeing that further hikes are coming.
• US Core PCE surpassed analysts’ expectations, paving the way for another 75 bps Fed hike.
• EU’s inflation jumped above the 10% threshold, and money market futures expect another 0.75% increase.

The pair currently trades last at 0.97868.

The previous day high was 0.9816 while the previous day low was 0.9636. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.9747, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.9705, expected to provide support.

The EUR/USD retraces from daily highs of around 0.9853 due to Fed officials expressing the necessity of higher rates for longer, as the US central bank battles elevated inflationary pressures above the 6% threshold, as shown by the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, on Friday. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 0.9788, below its opening price by 0.29%.

A bunch of Fed policymakers crossing news wires, led by Vice-Chair Lael Brainard, expressed that the Fed needs to keep interest rates higher-for-longer, so the bank can attain its goal. She added that the Fed would not pull back prematurely while echoing other colleagues’ expression of not knowing where rates would peak. Later in the same tone, San Francisco’s Mary Daly commented that further hikes were coming and that the Fed is “resolute” in taming inflation.

At the time of typing, Richmond’s Fed President Thomas Barkin said that he’s “comfortable” with the pace of rates, adding that it’s uncertain how much the Fed will have to do to lower demand to reach its inflation target.

Aside from this, the US Commerce Department revealed that the US Federal Reserve’s favorite measure of inflation, known as the PCE, increased more than estimated in August, at a 0.3% MoM pace, 6.2% YoY, while core PCE, which excludes volatile items, accelerated at a 0.6% MoM, up 4.9% YoY.

Of late, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Final reading was 58.6, less than previously reported. In the same report, inflation expectations for one year jumped to 4.7% from 4.6%, while for five years, it decelerated to 2.7% from 2.8% previously.

Given US economic data revealed in the week, even though it’s not outstanding, showed resilience. With Fed policymaker’s hawkish rhetoric, the US central bank might be headed for the fourth-consecutive 75 bps rate hike in November.

Across the pond, the EU reported inflation data surpassing the 10% threshold, headwinds for the economy of the block. Analysts are expecting another large hike by the ECB and coupled with factors like the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with Vladimir Putin’s signing of a decree to annex four Ukrainian regions, will exert extra pressure on the euro.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

EURUSD currently trading at 0.979 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 0.9816 and is trading with a change of -0.26 % .

The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 0.9901, 50 SMA 1.0039, 100 SMA @ 1.0251 and 200 SMA @ 1.0663.

The previous day high was 0.9816 while the previous day low was 0.9636. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 0.9747, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 0.9705, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 0.9696, 0.9576, 0.9515
• Pivot resistance is noted at 0.9876, 0.9936, 1.0056

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