The EURUSD pair has regained some of its previous losses and is trading closer to the 1.0650 level after bouncing back from its lowest point this month.

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• EUR/USD recovers some lost ground near 1.0650 after bouncing off the monthly low.

The pair currently trades last at 1.06478.

The previous day high was 1.0672 while the previous day low was 1.0615. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0637, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.065, expected to provide resistance.

The EUR/USD pair snaps its four-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Monday. Market participants will digest the outcome of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting last week and await the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index data due on Thursday. The major pair currently trades near 1.0650, gaining 0.05% on the day.

The rebound of EUR/USD from the monthly low of 1.0614 is supported by the Eurozone PMI data. HCOB purchasing managers index survey revealed on Friday that the Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 43.4 in September, compared to the market consensus of 44.0 and the previous reading of 43.5. In the meantime, the Services PMI rose to 48.4 in September from 47.9 in August, surpassing the expectation of 47.7. The HCOB Eurozone PMI Composite grew to 47.1 from 46.7 in August, above the 46.5 expected. The index registered a two-month peak.

European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Phillip Lane said on early Friday that inflation above 2% is costly for the economy and that central banks attempt to control inflation over the medium term. ECB is expected to end its hiking cycle and will stay on hold until at least July next year, according to economists in a Reuters poll. It’s worth recalling that the ECB raised its key interest rate to a record high of 4% on September 14. This, in turn, might drag the Euro lower against the Greenback.

Phillip Lane, chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated early on Friday that inflation above 2% is costly for the economy and ECB attempts to control inflation over the medium term. ECB is expected to pause its rate hikes and remain on hold until at least July 2024, according to a Reuters poll. It’s worth recalling that the ECB raised its key interest rate to a record high of 4% on September 14. This, in turn, might weigh on the Euro and act as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

Across the pond, economic data released on Friday showed that the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.9 in September from 47.9 in August, indicating an ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector’s business activity. The Services PMI fell to 50.2 from 50.5 in the previous month, while the Composite PMI dropped to 50.1, down marginally from 50.2 in August.

The report raised worries about the trajectory of demand conditions in the US economy following the interest rate hike cycle and elevated inflation. The benchmark overnight interest rate may be hiked one more time this year to a peak range of 5.50% to 5.75%, and rates could be significantly tighter through 2024 than previously anticipated, according to the Fed’s most recent quarterly predictions, This might lift the US Dollar against the Euro.

Looking ahead, the Fed’s preferred measure of consumer inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index will be in the spotlight this week. The annual figure is expected to drop from 4.2% to 3.9%. On the Euro docket, Spain and Germany will release Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Thursday, followed by France, Italy, and the Eurozone on Friday.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

EURUSD currently trading at 1.0649 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.0648 and is trading with a change of 0.01 % .

The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 1.0738, 50 SMA 1.0885, 100 SMA @ 1.0877 and 200 SMA @ 1.083.

The previous day high was 1.0672 while the previous day low was 1.0615. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0637, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.065, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 1.0618, 1.0588, 1.0562
• Pivot resistance is noted at 1.0675, 1.0702, 1.0731

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