#USDINR @ 83.2580 Indian Rupee edges lower on the stronger USD.
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- Indian Rupee edges lower on the stronger USD.
Indian Rupee ticks lower on Wednesday on the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. That being said, the higher-for-longer US interest rate narrative has lifted US Treasury bond yields to multi-year highs, which acts as a tailwind for the pair. Elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East might also lead to higher oil prices and impact Indian importers.
Nonetheless, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das said Tuesday that India’s growth momentum remains robust and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter of Fiscal Year 2024 is expected to surprise on the upside. Das further stated that geopolitical risks are the biggest challenge to growth. However, he is confident that India is in a better position compared to other countries to deal with potentially risky situations.
Market participants will closely monitor the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting, with no change in rates expected. However, a hawkish stance during the press conference might trigger volatility in the Indian market. Later this week, the spotlight will shift to US Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
The Indian Rupee trades with mild losses on the day. The USD/INR pair trades within a familiar range of 83.00–83.35. However, the technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias stays intact as the pair holds above the 100- and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) on the daily chart.
The key resistance level will emerge at the upper boundary of the trading range of 83.35. A decisive break above the latter will see a rally to year-to-date (YTD) highs of 83.45. The additional upside filter to watch is a psychological round figure at 84.00. On the other hand, the confluence of a low of October 20 and a round mark at 83.00 acts as a critical contention level. Any follow-through selling below 83.00 will pave the way to a low of September 12 at 82.82, followed by a low of August 4 at 82.65.
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