The USDPLN currency pair dropped by over 0.70%, approaching the 4.3000 level.

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• USD/PLN declined by more than 0.70% towards the 4.3000 level.

The pair currently trades last at 4.30849.

The previous day high was 4.3842 while the previous day low was 4.3088. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 4.3554, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 4.3376, expected to provide resistance.

The USD/PLN declined towards the 4.3000 level, as Polish policymakers have pointed out that they will consider the zloty weakness in the next monetary policy decisions.

Pawel Borys, a senior aide to Prime Minister Morawiecki, was the one who expressed concerns about the weakening of the currency beyond what he considered below the “optimal” as the USD/PLN rose by more than 4% in the last week, driven by the unexpected decision by the Polish central bank to cut rates by 75 basis points. It is worth noting that the Polish central bank governor, Adam Glapinski, justified the rate cuts due to local inflation moderating. Still, markets considered the move political with elections around the corner, which drove investors to dump the Zloty as the Narodowy Bank Polski’s (NBP) credibility took a big hit.

On the US side, the Greenback is holding its foot after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.7% YoY, higher than the 3.2% in July and beating the expected 3.6%. Conversely, the Core measure eased to 4.3% YoY, matching expectations. As a reaction, the USD is holding its foot as, according to the CME FedWatch tool, market participants still foresee nearly 40% of the odds of a 25 basis point hike by the Fed in 2023.

On the technical front, the USD/PLN indicates an overbought sentiment. This implies the potential for a short-term technical recovery, with a possible increase in downward movements. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is seen above the 70 threshold, while the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) presents neutral green bars. Furthermore, the pair is above the 20,100,200-day Simple Moving Average (SMAs), indicating that the bulls are in command of the broader picture.

Support levels: 4.2400 (200-day SMA), 4.1810 (20-day SMA), 4.1700.

Resistance levels: 4.3200, 4.3500, 4.3800.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDPLN currently trading at 4.3065 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 4.3308 and is trading with a change of -0.56 % .

The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 4.1708, 50 SMA 4.0866, 100 SMA @ 4.1144 and 200 SMA @ 4.2403.

The previous day high was 4.3842 while the previous day low was 4.3088. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 4.3554, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 4.3376, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 4.2983, 4.2659, 4.223
• Pivot resistance is noted at 4.3737, 4.4166, 4.449

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