The USD to RUB exchange rate of 95.4825 continues a downward movement that started at the beginning of the week after facing resistance at the 21-day moving average. It is currently trading near the lowest point of the day. The perspective is that there could be more decline in the future.
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- USD/RUB extends week-start reversal from 21-DMA resistance, holds lower grounds near intraday bottom of late.
USD/RUB remains depressed for the second consecutive day around the 93.00 threshold heading into Tuesday’s European session. In doing so, the Russian Ruble (RUB) pair defends the previous day’s U-turn from the 21-DMA, as well as keeps the last week’s retreat from a three-month-old previous support line.
Adding strength to the downside bias are the bearish MACD signals and the US Dollar’s weakness ahead of the US Conference Board’s (CB) Consumer Confidence Index for August, expected at 116.2 versus prior 117.00.
However, the RSI conditions suggest limited downside room, which in turn highlights the 91.80 support confluence comprising the 50-DMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the May-August upside.
Even if the USD/RUB pair drops below 91.80, July’s low of near 88.90 and 50% Fibonacci ratio of around 88.65 will act as additional checks for the sellers before giving them control.
Meanwhile, the 21-DMA and the support-turned-resistance guard the short-term USD/RUB rebound near 95.30 and 96.70 in that order.
Following that, the 100.00 psychological magnet will act as the final defense of the Russian Ruble bears before highlighting the pair’s latest peak of around 102.35.
Trend: Further downside expected
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