US Dollar Index remains defensive after bouncing off one-week low, snapping two-day downtrend. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
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- US Dollar Index remains defensive after bouncing off one-week low, snapping two-day downtrend.
- Mixed US data, banking sector update allow US Dollar to pare Fed-inflicted losses.
- US employment report for April will be the key as NFP bears downbeat forecasts.
The pair currently trades last at 101.37.
The previous day high was 101.95 while the previous day low was 101.08. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 101.41, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 101.62, expected to provide resistance.
US Dollar Index (DXY) remains sidelined near 101.40 during the early hours of Friday, struggling after posting the first daily gain in three at the weekly low. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies portrays the typical pre-NFP anxiety amid mixed updates on the US banking sector and the unimpressive data.
On Thursday, Reuters quotes Fed data suggesting that a large part of the central bank’s emergency lending activities in recent weeks were tied up with the now-shuttered First Republic Bank. On the same line was the news, shared via Reuters, “Pressure is growing on US regulators to take more steps to shore up the country’s banking sector as a renewed rout in regional lenders’ shares forced PacWest Bancorp to explore options to bolster its balance sheet.”
However, the Western Alliance’s shares’ rebound after slumping by nearly 60%, backed by its rejection of concerns suggesting that the bank is exploring strategic options, challenged the previous pessimism.
Elsewhere, preliminary readings of Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Cost for the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 came in mixed. That said, Nonfarm Productivity dropped to -2.7% in Q1 from 1.6% prior and -1.8% market forecasts whereas the Unit Labor Cost jumped to 6.3% versus 5.5% expected and 3.3% prior. Further, the US Goods and Services Trade Balance improved to $-64.2B from $-70.6B prior and $-63.3B market forecast. Further, Initial Jobless Claims edge higher to 242K for the week ended on April 28 versus 240K expected and 229K in previous readings.
Against this backdrop, Wall Street closed negative and the yields were pressured too but the US Dollar bounced off its weekly low.
Looking ahead, US Dollar may witness lackluster moves amid mixed signals but can extend the latest rebound as forecasts suggest downbeat prints of the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), expected 179K versus 236K prior.
Also read: US April Nonfarm Payrolls Preview: Analyzing Gold price’s reaction to NFP surprises
Unless providing a daily close below a three-week-old ascending support line, near 101.20 by the press time, US Dollar Index remains off the bear’s radar.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
EURUSD currently trading at 101.37 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 101.27 and is trading with a change of 0.10% % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 101.37 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | 0.10 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | 0.10% |
| 3 | Today daily open | 101.27 |
The pair remains strongly bearish on the daily time frame. It trades below the 20 SMA @ 101.76, 50 SMA 102.95, 100 SMA @ 103.14 and 200 SMA @ 106.1.
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 101.76 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 102.95 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 103.14 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 106.10 |
The previous day high was 101.95 while the previous day low was 101.08. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 101.41, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 101.62, expected to provide resistance.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 100.92, 100.56, 100.05
- Pivot resistance is noted at 101.79, 102.31, 102.66
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 101.95 |
| Previous Daily Low | 101.08 |
| Previous Weekly High | 102.18 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 101.01 |
| Previous Monthly High | 103.06 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 100.79 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 101.41 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 101.62 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 100.92 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 100.56 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 100.05 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 101.79 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 102.31 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 102.66 |
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