#EURUSD @ 1.10457 stays firm at around 1.1050 ahead of the FOMC’s decision. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)
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- EUR/USD stays firm at around 1.1050 ahead of the FOMC’s decision.
- The US ADP Employment report for April almost doubled the forecasts, as private hiring increased to almost 300K.
- The US Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates b 25 bps, though Powell’s message is still uncertain.
The pair currently trades last at 1.10457.
The previous day high was 1.1008 while the previous day low was 1.0942. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0983, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0967, expected to provide support.
The EUR/USD extends its gains after hitting a weekly low of 1.0942 on Tuesday, as traders brace for the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy decisions today and on May 4. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading around 1.1050, above its opening price by 0.44%.
A risk-on impulse took over, despite renewing banking concerns in the United States (US). Wall Street is trading with gains, though lower US Treasury bond yields undermined the US Dollar (USD), hence the EUR/USD advanced.
Therefore, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the buck’s value against six currencies, drops 0.54%, down to 101.41.
The latest data in the US economic agenda revealed that private hiring increased above estimates, but wages eased. April’s ADP Employment Change report showed that the economy added 296K jobs, exceeding forecasts of 148K. That triggered a reaction in the pair, as the EUR/USD dived to the 1.1020s region before bouncing and climbing to its daily high at 1.1060.
Of late, the ISM revealed the Non-Manufacturing PMI for April, also known as the Services, which rode by 51.9 above March’s 51.2. digging into the data, the price subcomponent held close to its lowest levels since 2020, while the employment index showed moderation.
Across the pond, the Eurozone (EU) docket featured the Unemployment Rate for March, which dipped to 6.5%, beneath the estimates and the prior’s month reading of 6.6%.
In the meantime, the EUR/USD traders prepare for the Federal Reserve decision. Odds for a 25 bps hike lie at 86.8%, as shown by the swaps markets. Notably, according to the futures market, this is the last increase expected by investors, as they are already pricing in 75 bps of rate cuts by year’s end.
On the Europan Central Bank front, estimates are lingering between a 50 or 25 bps increase. Although a 25 bps rate hike is already priced in, going twice is likely possible after the latest EU inflation data report. That has been the reason that underpinned the EUR/USD pair during the last couple of months.
Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances
EURUSD currently trading at 1.1052 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 1.1002 and is trading with a change of 0.45 % .
| Overview | Overview.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Today last price | 1.1052 |
| 1 | Today Daily Change | 0.0050 |
| 2 | Today Daily Change % | 0.4500 |
| 3 | Today daily open | 1.1002 |
The pair remains strongly bullish on the daily timeframe. It trades above its 20 SMA @ 1.0971, 50 SMA 1.0812, 100 SMA @ 1.077 and 200 SMA @ 1.0422.
| Trends | Trends.1 | |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | Daily SMA20 | 1.0971 |
| 1 | Daily SMA50 | 1.0812 |
| 2 | Daily SMA100 | 1.0770 |
| 3 | Daily SMA200 | 1.0422 |
The previous day high was 1.1008 while the previous day low was 1.0942. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 1.0983, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 1.0967, expected to provide support.
Note the levels of interest below:
- Pivot support is noted at 1.096, 1.0918, 1.0894
- Pivot resistance is noted at 1.1026, 1.105, 1.1091
| Levels | Levels.1 |
|---|---|
| Previous Daily High | 1.1008 |
| Previous Daily Low | 1.0942 |
| Previous Weekly High | 1.1095 |
| Previous Weekly Low | 1.0962 |
| Previous Monthly High | 1.1095 |
| Previous Monthly Low | 1.0788 |
| Daily Fibonacci 38.2% | 1.0983 |
| Daily Fibonacci 61.8% | 1.0967 |
| Daily Pivot Point S1 | 1.0960 |
| Daily Pivot Point S2 | 1.0918 |
| Daily Pivot Point S3 | 1.0894 |
| Daily Pivot Point R1 | 1.1026 |
| Daily Pivot Point R2 | 1.1050 |
| Daily Pivot Point R3 | 1.1091 |
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