#USDINR @ 82.1700 has climbed to near 82.30 amid a strengthening risk-off mood. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/INR has climbed to near 82.30 amid a strengthening risk-off mood.
• The demand for US government bonds has dropped dramatically, which has pushed the 10-year US Treasury yields above 4.0%.
• Fed’s Powell believes that the terminal rate is likely to be higher than earlier expected.

The pair currently trades last at 82.1700.

The previous day high was 82.0734 while the previous day low was 81.7335. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 81.9435, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 81.8633, expected to provide support.

The USD/INR pair has witnessed stellar buying interest at the opening as investors have started discounting the impact of the overnight jump in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The USD Index has printed a fresh three-month high above 105.80 as the Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell has endorsed a higher terminal rate to tame the persistent inflation.

S&P500 futures have surrendered their nominal gains generated in the Asian session, portraying an increase in the strength of the risk-aversion theme. The demand for US government bonds has dropped dramatically, which has pushed the 10-year US Treasury yields above 4.0%.

It seems that January’s above-targeted inflation figures, resilience in consumer spending, and surprising heavy addition of payrolls in the labor market forced Fed’s Powell to sound extremely hawkish for interest rate guidance.

Fed’s Powell cited “Ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated,” after the “latest economic data have come in stronger than expected.”

The USD/INR is expected to remain volatile ahead of the release of the United States Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Change data. As per the preliminary estimates, the economic data is seen at 200K, higher than the former release of 106K.

On the oil front, oil prices have dropped below $78.00 amid the mounting risk of recession in the US economy. From a longer-term perspective, Haitham Al Ghais, the Secretary-General of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), said, “China is expected to account for 500k-600K bpd (barrels per day) of new oil demand this year.“ He further added, “We are cautiously optimistic about China, but Europe is a concern.”

It is worth noting that India is one of the leading importers of oil and higher oil prices will support the Indian Rupee.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDINR currently trading at 82.1796 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 82.0733 and is trading with a change of 0.13 % .

The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 82.5594, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 82.1965 , above its 100 Daily moving average @ 82.1484 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 80.9213

The previous day high was 82.0734 while the previous day low was 81.7335. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 81.9435, expected to provide support. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 81.8633, expected to provide support.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 81.8468, 81.6202, 81.5069
• Pivot resistance is noted at 82.1866, 82.2999, 82.5265

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