#USDINR @ 81.9000 has scaled sharply above 82.00 as the RBI has kept its first bi-monthly policy unchanged. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

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• USD/INR has scaled sharply above 82.00 as the RBI has kept its first bi-monthly policy unchanged.
• Considering the contagion risk from global banking jitters and uncertainty, a steady policy has been chosen.
• Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China are keeping risk-sensitive assets on their toes.

The pair currently trades last at 81.9000.

The previous day high was 82.256 while the previous day low was 81.8345. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 81.9955, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 82.095, expected to provide resistance.

The USD/INR pair has scaled firmly above 82.00the Reserve Bank of Index (RBI) has kept its repo rate unchanged at 6.5%. Out of six Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members team, five voted for maintaining the status-quo. The street was anticipating a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike as India’s inflation rate at 6.44% is well-above the desired rate. RBI Governor Shaktikanta decided to keep rates steady considering the contagion risks from the global banking fiasco. Apart from that, recent jump in oil prices are sufficient enough to impact the economic prospects.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions between the United States and China are keeping risk-sensitive assets on toes. S&P500 futures have extended their losses after two consecutive bearish trading sessions. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is aiming to extend its gains further above 102.20 amid improved appeal for safe-haven assets.

Going forward, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data will remain in the spotlight. Soaring expectations of softening of the US labor market and economic slowdown due to the maintenance of higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have deepened fears of recession. Lower Job Openings data and economic slowdown are aiming for weak labor market data on Good Friday.

As per the expectations, the US economy added 240K jobs in March lower than the former release of 311K. The Unemployment Rate is seen unchanged at 3.6%. The major catalyst that will hog the limelight is the Labor Cost Index data, which is expected to accelerate by 0.3%, higher than February’s jump of 0.2%.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDINR currently trading at 81.871 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 81.9475 and is trading with a change of -0.09 % .

The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 82.3052, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 82.3482 , below its 100 Daily moving average @ 82.2036 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 81.3673

The previous day high was 82.256 while the previous day low was 81.8345. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 81.9955, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 82.095, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 81.7693, 81.5912, 81.3478
• Pivot resistance is noted at 82.1908, 82.4342, 82.6123

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