#USDINR @ 81.5010 pares recent losses amid holiday in India, cautious mood ahead of key US data. (Pivot Orderbook analysis)

…
This is a premium post.
[s2If !current_user_can(access_s2member_level4)]Please register for PREMIUM VERSION HERE to read full post below containing analysis. In case of any error or you think you are not able to read the full post below, please email us at support#nehcap.com [lwa][/s2If] [s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level4)]

• USD/INR pares recent losses amid holiday in India, cautious mood ahead of key US data.
• Mixed sentiment restricts market moves as traders await US Q4 GDP, PCE Price data.
• Odds favoring higher foreign fund inflow and softer Oil price favor INR buyers.
• Concerns surrounding Fed’s pivot keep US Dollar on a dicey floor.

The pair currently trades last at 81.5010.

The previous day high was 81.7795 while the previous day low was 81.3912. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 81.5395, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 81.6312, expected to provide resistance.

USD/INR retreats to 81.45 while paring the intraday gains during early Thursday. The Indian Rupee (INR) pair initially reacted to the US Dollar’s corrective bounce ahead of the key data but price-positive signals for the INR joined Indian holidays to recall the bears.

That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) bears take a breather around an eight-month low as traders await the first readings of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to print annualized growth of 2.6% versus 3.2% prior. Also important are the US Durable Goods Orders for December and the Q4 Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price data.

It’s worth noting that the downbeat US Treasury yields and hawkish bets on the European Central Bank (ECB), versus the recently increasing odds favoring the Fed’s policy pivot, seem to exert downside pressure on the DXY. “Traders broadly expect the Fed to increase rates by 25 basis points (bps) next Wednesday, a step down from a 50 bps increase in December,” said Reuters.

Elsewhere, the expected jump in the Indian foreign fund inflow due to the Adani Enterprise offerings joins the recently easing WTI crude oil prices to weigh on the USD/INR prices. That said, the WTI crude oil drops nearly half a percent to $80.30 by the press time.

On the other hand, the hopes of more public sector demands and importers’ moves, as well as the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) actions, could weigh on the INR.

Given the Republic Day holiday in India, USD/INR is likely to witness a more sluggish day ahead, in addition to the pre-data anxiety. That said, the downbeat expectations from the scheduled US data keep the pair sellers hopeful but a positive surprise could trigger a notable reaction ahead of the next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Also read: US Gross Domestic Product Preview: Three reasons to expect a US Dollar-boosting outcome

A two-week-old bearish channel restricts USD/INR moves between 80.80 and 81.75 at the latest.

Technical Levels: Supports and Resistances

USDINR currently trading at 81.4685 at the time of writing. Pair opened at 81.3912 and is trading with a change of 0.09% % .

The pair is trading below its 20 Daily moving average @ 81.8829, below its 50 Daily moving average @ 82.0589 , below its 100 Daily moving average @ 81.7809 and above its 200 Daily moving average @ 80.1556

The previous day high was 81.7795 while the previous day low was 81.3912. The daily 38.2% Fib levels comes at 81.5395, expected to provide resistance. Similarly, the daily 61.8% fib level is at 81.6312, expected to provide resistance.

Note the levels of interest below:

• Pivot support is noted at 81.2618, 81.1323, 80.8735
• Pivot resistance is noted at 81.6501, 81.9089, 82.0384

[/s2If]
Join Our Telegram Group